Thanks for this thoughtful article. Your metaphor of China as a mirror of US anxieties and fears, helping gin up military contacts and loose regulations, while ignoring reality over there, resonates. The cooperation we had so recently was much more beneficial to both “sides” and to the world.
China has the correct approach. I have taught students in China and on line for over ten years, and they currently use AI only as tools, not as a replacement for critical thinking. Regarding data centers, I have been told by parents and I think there has been some reporting, that China now generates so much clean energy that they have a surplus on their grid, and the surplus is enough to power AI I think yesterday China announced a new policy that companies could not lay off employees due to AI replacement as well. Interesting times....
Thoughtful article, thank you for sharing it and the underlying research.
Related: Why would the PRC want to "race" towards AGI/ASI which would risk a loss of control scenario, and directly threaten the ongoing viability of the government?
Have a read of these pieces which discusses that same issue from a more technical and policy perspective. Maybe helpful in your upcoming paper mentioned.
The fundamental issue is simply that: there is no AI race.
The entire concept of an AI race is purely an ideological one. There is zero scientific or even logical content in the concept. For the simple reason that no one country can possibly have a monopoly on AI theory - even if they have some sort of economic "lock" on advanced microchips - which is also impossible, especially for China given its economic power.
The bottom line is: demographics. China has 3-4 times the educated population of the US - and probably more than the entire West - and more of that population goes into STEM than in the US.
Do the math. Anyone who thinks the US or the entire West can "contain" China is delusional.
The entire intent of the US and much of the West is to contain China for the simple reason that the moneyed interests in the West see their hegemony over much of the world in economic and military terms being threatened by the rise of multipolarism globally.
This is the basis of the Iran war and the seizure of Venezuelen oil and the attacks on Russian oil facilities and tankers by Ukraine and the CIA, The goal is to deny oil to China, under the mistaken and erroneous belief that such an act will cripple China's growth. In fact, China is almost 85% energy-independent and will probably achieve that over the next decade or two. In the meantime, much of its shortfall in oil imports will be made up by Russia (already promised by President Putin in the recent meeting with Xi) or other sources.
Richard Medhurst has explained this with detailed examples in his YouTube video and paper on Substack:
Brian Berletic, a geopolitical analyst, has also explained the overall US government intent toward multipolarism and especially China on his YouTube Channel, "The New Atlas" with reference to explicit US think tank documents and Congressional testimony.
That is likely to produce a hard stop to the construction of US AI data centers, and a significant reduction in the US economy which will result in a collapse of the stock market and a reduction in consumer spending, probably combined with high inflation ("stagflation").
What that will do to the trillion-dollar valuations and investments in AI in the US will be interesting to see.
I wonder whether Nick Land sees today’s AI race, sparked by Silicon Valley and intensified by China, as the realization of his accelerationist thesis, or as something even he might find disturbing.
China doesn't have to understand that they're in a race for it to be a race. If they understood the gravity of the situation a year ago, they'd have had a legitimate chance of catching up in the next year or so. A strategy of "let's wait until they realize how important it is" is not sound. That of course doesn't mean that we should attempt to win the race at all costs. But China not treating the race the same as we do is not a justification to allow ourselves to slow down.
Thanks for this thoughtful article. Your metaphor of China as a mirror of US anxieties and fears, helping gin up military contacts and loose regulations, while ignoring reality over there, resonates. The cooperation we had so recently was much more beneficial to both “sides” and to the world.
China has the correct approach. I have taught students in China and on line for over ten years, and they currently use AI only as tools, not as a replacement for critical thinking. Regarding data centers, I have been told by parents and I think there has been some reporting, that China now generates so much clean energy that they have a surplus on their grid, and the surplus is enough to power AI I think yesterday China announced a new policy that companies could not lay off employees due to AI replacement as well. Interesting times....
Thoughtful article, thank you for sharing it and the underlying research.
Related: Why would the PRC want to "race" towards AGI/ASI which would risk a loss of control scenario, and directly threaten the ongoing viability of the government?
I've not heard a good case for that...
Great post!
Have a read of these pieces which discusses that same issue from a more technical and policy perspective. Maybe helpful in your upcoming paper mentioned.
https://centerforchinaanalysis.substack.com/p/misdiagnosing-the-uschina-ai-race
https://www.digitalistpapers.com/vol2/graylin
The global market is fundamentally mispricing the physical commodity of silver. Silver can no longer be viewed merely as an investment vehicle, an inflation hedge, or "Gold's little brother." It has fundamentally transformed into a strategic resource vital to national defense and economic sovereignty.https://triggledger.substack.com/p/the-silver-key-the-irreplaceable?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=8gc1qf
Excellent article! A must-read I will restack.
The fundamental issue is simply that: there is no AI race.
The entire concept of an AI race is purely an ideological one. There is zero scientific or even logical content in the concept. For the simple reason that no one country can possibly have a monopoly on AI theory - even if they have some sort of economic "lock" on advanced microchips - which is also impossible, especially for China given its economic power.
The bottom line is: demographics. China has 3-4 times the educated population of the US - and probably more than the entire West - and more of that population goes into STEM than in the US.
Do the math. Anyone who thinks the US or the entire West can "contain" China is delusional.
The entire intent of the US and much of the West is to contain China for the simple reason that the moneyed interests in the West see their hegemony over much of the world in economic and military terms being threatened by the rise of multipolarism globally.
This is the basis of the Iran war and the seizure of Venezuelen oil and the attacks on Russian oil facilities and tankers by Ukraine and the CIA, The goal is to deny oil to China, under the mistaken and erroneous belief that such an act will cripple China's growth. In fact, China is almost 85% energy-independent and will probably achieve that over the next decade or two. In the meantime, much of its shortfall in oil imports will be made up by Russia (already promised by President Putin in the recent meeting with Xi) or other sources.
Richard Medhurst has explained this with detailed examples in his YouTube video and paper on Substack:
https://richardmedhurst.substack.com/p/the-petrogas-dollar-the-secret-us
https://richardmedhurst.substack.com/p/how-the-us-pulled-off-an-armed-robbery
Brian Berletic, a geopolitical analyst, has also explained the overall US government intent toward multipolarism and especially China on his YouTube Channel, "The New Atlas" with reference to explicit US think tank documents and Congressional testimony.
https://www.youtube.com/@TheNewAtlas/videos
If one doesn't understand the panic in the West's moneyed interests, one can not understand current geopolitical and economic events.
As a result of the Iran war, according to most oil industry analysts and economists, we are headed toward a global Depression worse than 1929.
An explanation of the oil situation is here by Art Berman, a respected oil market expert.
Oil Supply Crisis Won't End Quickly /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Art Berman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyVUgJ_5H5k
That is likely to produce a hard stop to the construction of US AI data centers, and a significant reduction in the US economy which will result in a collapse of the stock market and a reduction in consumer spending, probably combined with high inflation ("stagflation").
What that will do to the trillion-dollar valuations and investments in AI in the US will be interesting to see.
I wonder whether Nick Land sees today’s AI race, sparked by Silicon Valley and intensified by China, as the realization of his accelerationist thesis, or as something even he might find disturbing.
China doesn't have to understand that they're in a race for it to be a race. If they understood the gravity of the situation a year ago, they'd have had a legitimate chance of catching up in the next year or so. A strategy of "let's wait until they realize how important it is" is not sound. That of course doesn't mean that we should attempt to win the race at all costs. But China not treating the race the same as we do is not a justification to allow ourselves to slow down.