When citing betting markets it would be helpful to also include total volume of activity as a proxy for confidence. For example NY-12 has less than $6k total volume over 2 months, which to me would indicate the "chance to win" percentages are extremely low confidence since almost no one is betting on this yet.
When citing betting markets it would be helpful to also include total volume of activity as a proxy for confidence. For example NY-12 has less than $6k total volume over 2 months, which to me would indicate the "chance to win" percentages are extremely low confidence since almost no one is betting on this yet.
I created manifold markets for TX-10 and TN-9:
https://manifold.markets/MaxHarms/who-will-win-the-tx10-congressional
https://manifold.markets/MaxHarms/who-will-win-the-tn9-congressional
Thanks for all that information. All this going on and everyone STILL hates AI. We can't get rid of these oligarchs soon enough.