I think you’re right that a slowdown is coming, though the lab self-restraint leg seems weaker than the others. The Pacing the Frontier letter explicitly stops short of calling for one now and asks government to make deliberate pacing possible later. That leaves regulation and intelligence agencies doing most of the work in your account.
That detente framing assumes both sides can verify a ceiling. Arms control worked because you could count silos from orbit, and nobody's worked out the equivalent for a training run yet.
I think you’re right that a slowdown is coming, though the lab self-restraint leg seems weaker than the others. The Pacing the Frontier letter explicitly stops short of calling for one now and asks government to make deliberate pacing possible later. That leaves regulation and intelligence agencies doing most of the work in your account.
That detente framing assumes both sides can verify a ceiling. Arms control worked because you could count silos from orbit, and nobody's worked out the equivalent for a training run yet.
Agreed that no one’s worked it out, but there are lots of ideas for how to do it and progress is being made. See: https://aigi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Verification_for_International_AI_Governance.pdf